Crucial Quote
“There is still a lot of travel demand, continued demand, and airlines have taken notice,” Katy Nastro, spokesperson for the airfare deal-finding app Going, told Forbes. “The fact that airlines can command these higher prices and not see a dip in their booking numbers means there’s no incentive for them to lower fares, even though the jet fuel price has come down.”
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Why Falling Jet Fuel Prices Likely Won’t Lead To Lower Airfares
Robust travel demand has allowed airlines to charge higher airfares and recover some of the billions in profits lost this year through bigger jet fuel bills. Meanwhile, domestic flight capacity is basically flat (+0.8%) compared to last year, according to data from OAG Aviation Worldwide. “Summer is when we see typically see an increase in capacity, because there is strong demand to take that coveted summer vacation,” Nastro told Forbes. “However, this year with the higher jet fuel costs, major airlines like United, American and Delta have trimmed between 3% and 5% from their schedules to offset some of their fuel costs.” The bottom line: Unless airlines start adding significantly more flights to their schedules or there is a significant drop in demand, neither of which is expected, travelers will likely see airfares stay elevated. “Once the airline industry puts fares up, they tend to stay up,” Gradek told Forbes, adding carriers would be more likely to run “spot sales, temporary sales or localized sales” if demand lags. “But the actual base fares will stay up there.”
How To Snag A Flight Deal This Summer
“Flexibility is a superpower,” Nastro said, noting a lot of people take a week off in the summer and then can’t change their travel dates if a better deal were to materialize. Timing is also key. “If you can travel the last two weeks in August, that’s when we still see better prices.” Historically, traveling at the end of August is roughly 23% cheaper compared to any other time over the summer, according to Going data. “If I look at those last weeks of August, I’m seeing flights are roughly 30% to 40% off versus traveling, say, next week,” she said.
Further Reading
Airlines Take 50% Profit Hit Due To $100 Billion Jet Fuel Increase (Forbes)
Jet Fuel Shortage In ‘Crisis Mode’—More Flight Cuts And Higher Airfares (Forbes)