What Do We Know About The CFTC’s Proposal On Banning Certain Bets?
Last month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened a set of proposed rules on regulating online prediction markets to public comment. The proposal seeks to ban wagers deemed not in the public interest or prone to manipulation through insider information. This is expected to affect bets linked to wars, terror attacks and assassinations. The proposals have not yet been enacted and it’s unclear if the Putin bet would fall under this public interest ban.
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What Do We Know About Political Insider Betting Cases?
In April, a U.S. Special Forces soldier involved in a raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was charged with using classified information to win more than $400,000 on Polymarket. The DOJ said the soldier was charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain. The soldier made 13 bets on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets in late December last year, just days before the raid, and as a result, he earned approximately $409,881. In a separate incident in late April, Kalshi announced it had suspended the accounts of three political candidates who placed bets on the outcome of their own election races.
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further reading
Big Polymarket bets have been placed on Putin’s downfall (NBC News)
CFTC Will Propose Banning Some Bets On Online Prediction Markets, Report Says (Forbes)
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