Tangent
Bettors now believe Platner will almost certainly drop out of the race before the end of the month. Wagers on Polymarket about Platner’s exit predict a 96% chance he’ll drop out sometime in the next two weeks. Bookmakers on Kalshi believe there’s a 91% chance he’ll exit the race by next week.
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What About Overall Midterm Betting Odds?
Despite major concerns about unfavorable redistricting, Democrats still remain the bookmakers’ favorite to win the House. According to Election Betting Odds, which consolidates numbers from multiple markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt, bettors believe Democrats have a 81% chance of taking back the House. Bookmakers believe that the Senate race leans towards the GOP, with the party’s overall odds of retaining control at 56.3%. The Democrats’ Senate odds have surged since the start of the year, and they briefly pushed ahead after the start of the war in Iran.
Key Background
Platner’s candidacy has been plagued by multiple scandals in the past month. The most serious allegation was raised by a 41-year-old woman, Jenny Racicot, who accused the senate candidate of raping her when they were dating five years ago. The woman told Politico that Platner came to her home uninvited and in an inebriated state in 2021 and forcibly had sex with her. Platner has refuted the allegations, calling them “serious, troubling and false,” but noted that his campaign is “taking the time to reflect on the best path forward.” Racicot’s allegations follow reports of Platner allegedly sending sexually explicit texts to other women and “unsettling behavior,” both of which he has denied. The latest allegations have prompted several prominent Democrats to demand that Platner step down from the race.
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further reading
Bernie Sanders Says Graham Platner Should Drop Out After Rape Allegation (Forbes)
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Woman who dated Graham Platner says he sexually assaulted her (Politico)