How Big Could Retatrutide Be?
Analysts have suggested retatrutide could become a blockbuster weight loss drug if approved. In January, TD Cowen analysts estimated retatrutide could generate $3.8 billion in sales in 2030, while GlobalData forecasts sales of $15.6 billion by 2031. Demand for the drug is already so intense some people have turned to an online black market, facilitated through WhatsApp or other websites, to buy what sellers say is retatrutide from Chinese labs, the New York Times reported.
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tangent
Novo Nordisk sued Eli Lilly on Tuesday, accusing the company of using outdated studies in its advertisements that exaggerate the efficacy of Lilly’s products. The suit accused Lilly of demonstrating a “nationwide pattern of deceptive advertising,” saying one of its ad campaigns uses an outdated dose of Novo’s Wegovy to compare it unfavorably to Lilly’s Zepbound. Novo’s suit seeks a permanent injunction from the court that would require Lilly to pull “misleading comparative advertising” campaigns and conduct a “corrective advertising campaign.”
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key background
Lilly and Novo are chief rivals in the GLP-1 market, but Lilly now captures a greater share of prescriptions, CNN reported in February. BMO analysts said last year they expected Lilly’s drugs to “continue to take incremental U.S. share from Novo’s” GLP-1 medications. “While Novo had the headstart with approval of semaglutide, we believe that this first mover advantage has waned, with Lilly’s tirezepatide taking share rapidly,” the analysts wrote, adding Lilly’s dominance could accelerate with retatrutide. CNBC reported in February Novo Nordisk was bracing for a 5% to 13% decline in sales and profit for 2026, while Lilly expected about a 25% boost in sales. Earlier this year, Novo Nordisk said it would slash prices on its flagship medications in 2027 as it tries to win over customers.
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further reading
Novo Nordisk Sues GLP-1 Rival Eli Lilly For Misleading Advertising (Forbes)