Contra
Progressive Reps. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., and Ro Khanna, D-Calif., have formally endorsed Hong.
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What To Watch For
Polls show Hong is likely to win Tuesday’s primary, but faces a tough challenge against Tiffany in the general election. A recent State Navigate poll shows Hong losing support to Tiffany among Democratic primary voters in November—70% said they would definitely back Hong, but 3% said they would probably support Tiffany and 5% said they would definitely back Tiffany. A Marquette Law School poll also found Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes, who has since dropped out, was the only Democratic primary candidate with an advantage over Tiffany in the general election, while Hong trailed Tiffany by three percentage points.
Big Number
95.5%. Those are Hong’s odds of winning the primary, according to the Kalshi prediction market.
Tangent
Abdul El-Sayed’s win in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary is another swing state race that will test the progressive movement in the general election. El-Sayed won his primary by a thinner-than-expected margin last week, and polls show a near-tie between him and the Republican nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers. President Donald Trump celebrated El-Sayed’s win as “great news for the Republican Party.” Unlike Hong, El-Sayed isn’t an official member of the Democratic Socialists of America and he had the backing of prominent progressives, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., though it’s not uncommon that they wouldn’t make endorsements in gubernatorial races in states they don’t represent.
CRUCIAL QUOTE
“It would be good for @AbdulElSayed if Francesca Hong loses her bid to become the Democratic nominee in Wisconsin next week,” longtime Democratic campaign adviser David Axelrod tweeted last week. “He is a serious person. She is a font of zany liberal, faculty lounge exotica.”
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Key Background
Hong is among four Democrats running to replace Evers, who is retiring at the end of the year. Crowley initially suspended his campaign in early July and endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, then re-entered the race 10 days later when Rodriguez dropped out. Barnes also dropped out, citing Hong’s lead in a statement. Hong has faced criticism for a series of controversial past social media posts, including bashing Thanksgiving in 2020, alleging the holiday is “celebrating colonialism.” She faced more criticism for her roundabout answer to CNN last week when asked if she wanted to “cancel Thanksgiving,” as she advocated for in 2020, then reversed her position in an interview with Politico, telling the outlet last week it’s actually her favorite holiday.
further reading
Wisconsin Gov. Candidate Hong Faces Backlash Over ‘Cancel Thanksgiving’ Comment—Even From Democrats (Forbes)
Progressive El-Sayed Wins Michigan’s Democratic Senate Primary—Results Much Closer Than Expected (Forbes)
Establishment Democrats Line Up Behind Progressive El-Sayed After Tight Race Divided Party (Forbes)
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