What to Watch for
A number of major retailers still have to release their earnings for the past quarter, including Macy’s, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Kohl’s and Dick’s Sporting Goods. Discount retailers like Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Five Below excluded tariff refunds from their earnings in past quarters as the refund process remains ongoing, making it difficult to tell how much they’ve taken in. Costco, which is facing a class-action lawsuit from consumers over tariff refunds, said in its most recent May earnings call that it was only starting to submit requests for tariff refunds, so it remains to be seen how much the big box giant receives.
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Which Retailers Are Using Tariff Refunds On Lower Prices?
Walmart was one of the few retailers this week to commit to using its massive refund check to lower prices for consumers, with CEO John W. Furner on an earnings call, “Our intent was to deploy much of that back into price, and that’s what we’re doing.” Amazon has also previously said it would pass a portion of its tariff refunds directly back to consumers, in cases where customers paid import fees, and would otherwise use the money to reduce prices. Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said in a May that the company isn’t as impacted by tariff refunds, as it only directly imports around 2% to 3% of its products, but Best Buy’s “goal is that any recovery of duties we have will be used to deliver value back to our customers.” While it’s still unclear how much tariff refund money Costco will receive in total, leadership has previously suggested it will be at least partially passed on to consumers, with CEO Ron Vachris saying the company would return tariff costs “in some form.”
How Are Tariffs Impacting Consumers?
The New York Federal Reserve reported in February that approximately 90% of the tariffs’ “economic burden” has been felt by U.S. firms and consumers, including tariffs getting passed on to consumers in the form of increased prices. The bank previously found in 2025 that approximately three-quarters of businesses surveyed passed tariff costs onto consumers in some form, and the Yale Budget Lab estimates the Trump administration’s tariff policy—which includes other tariffs beyond the ones now being refunded—is raising each household’s annual costs by approximately $1,100 per year as of August. A working paper published in the National Bureau of Economic Research in July similarly estimated 26% of the government’s tariff increases were passed through via higher prices. Those price increases are expected to continue, with the New York Federal Reserve reporting nearly half of the companies it surveyed in May were still planning additional tariff-related price bumps.
What Are Retailers Spending Their Tariff Refunds On?
Other retailers have suggested they intend to use their tariff refund money to invest back into their companies and operations. Home Depot and Lowe’s executives said this week their refund money will be used to offset other rising costs, such as on fuel, even as Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison competitors were using their refunds to lower prices and increase promotions. Target CFO Jim Lee in an earnings call the company was managing tariffs with a “continual focus on protecting value for our guests” and plans to “continue lowering prices” overall, but did not comment on whether its tariff refund money—which accounted for more than a quarter of the company’s earnings per share—would be used for that. TJX, which owns other stores like HomeGoods, Marshalls and Homesense along with TJ Maxx, said it would use $112 million of its tariff refund money on employee compensation and bonuses, but didn’t comment on where the other two-thirds of its refund check would be directed.
Tariff Refunds Spark Political Debate
Democratic lawmakers have harshly criticized corporations receiving millions in tariff refunds without passing those benefits on to consumers. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., sent in August to leaders of Walmart, Apple, Nike, Target and other major corporations, which urged them to pass on refunds to consumers. “While American families and small businesses struggle to keep up with rising prices, your company has raked in sky-high profits,” Warren wrote, asking companies to submit information on their tariff refunds, any tariff-related price increases they made and what they intended to do in terms of passing refunds on to consumers. The Trump administration, meanwhile, has been critical of the tariff refunds because they’re being forced to undo a signature economic policy, but officials haven’t shared Democrats’ outrage over where those refunds are going. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Thursday he believed Democrats were responsible for the “corporate welfare” that companies are now receiving, because Democratic attorneys general were the ones who sued against the Trump administration’s tariff policy. “The American people had that money,” Bessent said, referring to when the tariff revenue was in the government’s coffers. “If I hear another Democratic legislator say … ‘the American people should get the money’ — the American people had the money, in the U.S. Treasury, and we were forced to give it back.”
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Key Background
President Donald Trump has made tariffs one of his signature economic policies, imposing sweeping tariffs despite concerns from economists that doing so would harm consumers and the broader economy. The centerpiece of Trump’s tariff agenda was his “Liberation Day” tariffs, which were announced in April 2025 and took effect months later, imposing tariffs on goods from nearly all countries. The Supreme Court eventually struck those tariffs down in February, ruling he did not have authority to impose them under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, as he had claimed. Trump has railed against the high court’s rulings and imposed other tariffs to make up for those the court struck down, despite polling showing his tariff policy is broadly unpopular. The president first implemented temporary 10% tariffs across the board immediately after the Supreme Court’s decision, followed by new fees of between 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 countries when the initial replacement tariffs expired.
Further Reading
Walmart Shares Sink 8% After Slowest U.S. Sales Growth Since 2020 (Forbes)
Trump’s Tariff Refund Process Sparks ‘Grave Concerns’ About Consumers Getting Money Back, State Treasurer Cohort Says (Forbes)
Tariff Refunds Start Today—But Average Consumers Won’t Benefit (Forbes)
Could You Join A Trump Tariff Class-Action Suit? Here’s What’s Been Filed (Forbes)
GM Expects $500 Million Tariff Refund—Boosting 2026 Earnings Estimates (Forbes)
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