crucial quote

“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” Warsh said. “Otherwise, we have work to do.”

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what to watch for

During the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting, Warsh suggested that central bank officials would cut their meeting schedule from eight to six each year, with votes on interest rates held “roughly every two months.” Warsh argued this would allow policymakers more time to “consider strategic monetary policy issues” and review more economic reports. No decision about scheduling changes was made during the meeting, but Warsh requested input from other officials.

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key background

Inflation steadily increased through the U.S.-Iran conflict, with consumer prices rising at their fastest rate in years in May before cooling by July. Central bank officials have, for months, expressed concerns that inflation has yet to show improvements, saying in April they believed there was an “increased risk” that inflation would take longer to fall below the Fed’s 2% goal than previously expected. Warsh has said that lower inflation would be a central goal for the Fed, saying that the “inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.” The Fed has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation,” and that by setting policy “right,” inflation would improve. Many Fed officials have said interest rate hikes would “likely be necessary” if inflation did not decline, and some policymakers indicated their inflation outlooks were “highly uncertain” as a conflict in the Middle East “clouded” projections.

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further reading

ForbesFed’s Preferred Inflation Meter Unchanged In July—Here’s Why Interest Rates Hikes Are Now More LikelyBy Ty Roush

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