What We Don’t Know
Will the World Cup help stem the decline of international tourists to the U.S.? Last year, spending by foreign travelers fell 2.4% to $175 billion. The U.S. Travel Association expects the World Cup to boost international travel spending by 1.6% this year to $178 billion—but that figure is still 18% below pre-COVID pandemic levels when adjusted for inflation. When FIFA projected World Cup soccer fans would inject $30.5 billion into the U.S. economy this summer, it assumed 40% of visitors would be international. But so far, hotels in World Cup host cities have noted lower-than-expected international visitation, the CEO of the American Hotel & Lodging Association told CNBC. It remains an open question whether the U.S. will see a last-minute influx of international travel in the numbers necessary to lift the economy. Western Europeans make up more than one third of overseas tourists to the U.S., and they—unlike many South American and African travelers—have fewer barriers to entry. But flight bookings from Europe into most World Cup host cities for June and July were down about 4% year-over-year, according to Cirium, on top of last year’s decline, Reuters reported, with bookings from Europe into New York, host of the tournament’s July 19 final, down 16%.
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How Much Could Fewer European Visitors Cost The U.S. Economy?
In 2025, while tourism grew around the globe, the U.S. was the only nation to see international visitor spending decline, according to a study of 184 countries by the World Travel & Tourism Council. Tourism industry leaders have blamed the downturn in inbound international tourism on President Donald Trump’s tariffs, America First rhetoric and immigration policies. If the May decline in European visitors persists through the rest of the year, the U.S. could lose 2 million visitors, spending roughly $2,000 apiece, for a visitor spending loss of about $4 billion.
Tangent
Despite a 10% jump in Canadian visitors in May compared to last year, the number of Canadian tourists was still down 15% compared to May 2024.
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Further Reading
World Cup: How An England Vs. Germany Final Could Boost The U.S. Economy (Forbes)
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Is Canada’s Travel Boycott Of The U.S. Over? May Visitors Jumped 10% (Forbes)