What To Watch For
Iran has left open the possibility it could still charge ships to transit the strait. Iran began tolling ships when it shut down the strait. While Trump has claimed the strait will be completely toll-free, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Monday Iran could still charge fees “in exchange for the services that are provided.”
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Contra
An unnamed senior U.S. official told CNN the U.S. will not relieve economic sanctions or lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports if Iran doesn’t reopen the strait and meet other terms of the agreement with the U.S. Blocking the strait could also anger China and other Gulf countries Iran’s economy depends on, another unnamed source told CNN.
Crucial Quote
“We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait—a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” one of the sources familiar with the assessments told CNN.
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Key Background
The U.S. and Iran signed an agreement electronically to end the conflict on Sunday and are expected to sign the deal in person on Friday in Geneva. Few details about the agreement are known, but Iran could secure several benefits it didn’t have before the war—while it’s unclear if key U.S. objectives, including regime change and ending Iran’s nuclear program, will be met. Nuclear talks are expected to be deferred until after the initial agreement is signed Friday, with a 60-day deadline to reach a permanent agreement.
further reading
Crucial Aspects Of Trump’s Iran Deal Remain Secret: Nuclear Program, Strait Of Hormuz Tolls And Sanctions Relief (Forbes)
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Trump Says Iran Peace Deal ‘Complete’—Ends Strait Of Hormuz Blockade (Forbes)
Trump And Vance Angrily Deny Peace Deal Favors Iran (Forbes)