Tangent
After Paxton’s victory, Cook Political Report updated its rating for the Texas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” highlighting the Democrats’ improved odds. In its update, the publication said Republicans were now “saddled with a controversial candidate who’s been a weak fundraiser,” and noted that Paxon has a “litany of ethical lapses for Democrats to exploit.” Former FiveThirtyEight editorial director G. Elliott Morris echoed this in his forecast and said that the Texas race was now a “tossup.” Morris noted that Paxton’s victory has given Democrats their “preferred and weaker opponent.”
Read more Trump Attacks Biden After Ex-President Sues To Block DOJ’s Release Of His Audio Recordings
What Do The Overall Betting Odds Say About The Midterms?
Despite major concerns about unfavorable redistricting, Democrats still remain the bookmakers’ favorite to win the House. According to Election Betting Odds, which consolidates numbers from multiple markets including Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt, bettors believe Democrats have a 75.8% chance of taking back the House. Bookmakers believe that the Senate race remains a toss-up with the GOP having slightly better overall odds of retaining control at 52.4%. The Democrats’ Senate odds have surged since the start of the year and a boost after the start of the Iran war had even pushed their odds ahead of the GOP for several weeks.
Read more Rubio Says ‘Solid’ US-Iran Deal Could Happen ‘Maybe Today’ As Global Markets Rise
Further Reading
Ken Paxton Beats Sen. John Cornyn In Texas GOP Primary After Trump’s Last-Minute Endorsement (Forbes)
Read more A Rare ‘Blue Moon’ Is Coming — What It Really Means