Betting Markets Favor Spacex-Tesla Merger
Kalshi has placed 52% odds on a Tesla and SpaceX merger before May 1, 2027, as of Wednesday, with lower odds projected for before April 1, 2027 (45%), and before March 1, 2027 (37%). Betting odds briefly spiked to as high as 76.7% ahead of SpaceX’s IPO filing earlier this month, and rival Polymarket has placed 32% odds of a merger before the end of 2026.
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What To Watch For
When SpaceX debuts on the Nasdaq. SpaceX’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission to take the company public was disclosed last week, which could allow for a stock listing under the ticker SPCX as early as June 12. SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, potentially surpassing the all-time IPO valuation record of $1.7 trillion set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.
Forbes Valuation
Musk is the world’s richest person by far, with a net worth of $837.9 billion as of Wednesday, according to Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires list. He’s expected to become the world’s first trillionaire following SpaceX’s IPO, as Forbes estimates Musk’s SpaceX stake at nearly 40%, valuing his equity at about $600 billion and potentially swelling his fortune above $1.4 trillion. Musk is also set to become the first chief executive of two companies with a market capitalization of $1 trillion, as Tesla is worth just over $1.6 trillion as of Wednesday.
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Key Background
Analysts have speculated whether Musk would combine Tesla with SpaceX, even before the rocket firm acquired his xAI in February. SpaceX has discussed a possible tie-up with Tesla and some investors have pushed the idea, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, who noted the companies could decide to remain separate. Musk’s companies have shared personnel and pooled resources for years: Tesla said in January it invested $2 billion in xAI, and SpaceX revealed in its IPO filing that it bought $697 million worth of Tesla’s battery energy storage systems in 2024 and 2025 to power data centers used by xAI. SpaceX also disclosed a $131 million purchase of Tesla’s Cybertrucks in 2025.
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Further Reading
ForbesMusk’s Mars Colony Plans And SpaceX Control Could Derail Starlink Profits, Analyst SaysBy Ty RoushForbesSpaceX Could Face ‘Musk Effect’ With Major Risks After IPO, Analyst WarnsBy Ty Roush