What Happened To Shoulder Season?
The period between Labor Day and early November is known as shoulder season because it sits between the peak summer and holiday travel seasons. Historically, this is a time when airfares reliably fall from their summer highs. But the Iran war has led to significantly higher jet fuel costs, which have challenged airlines’ thin profit margins. “When we see a jet fuel price increase this great and that has gone on for this long, airlines really can’t afford to subsidize any of that price increase for travelers,” Berg told Forbes.
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Big Number
$8.35 billion. That’s how much more the six largest U.S. airlines spent on jet fuel in the second quarter compared to last year, according to earnings reports.
Airlines’ Q2 Jet Fuel Bills Were Staggering
The soaring cost of aviation fuel has hit legacy airlines hard this year. On Delta’s first-quarter earnings call, CFO Daniel Janki predicted the carrier would pay more than $2 billion in additional fuel expense in Q2 compared to its beginning-of-year plan. But by Delta’s second-quarter earnings call, the airline’s three-month fuel bill was about $4.4 billion, more than twice what it spent in the same period of 2025. Similarly, United Airlines spent $5.1 billion on jet fuel in the second quarter compared to $2.8 billion a year earlier—an 84% jump. American Airlines’ Q2 fuel expense was $4.88 billion, up 83% year over year.
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Tangent
Spirit Airlines’ exit from the market is also keeping fares higher. “They were a major low-cost carrier on a lot of domestic routes, where they were setting an ultra-low price and really bringing prices down,” Berg told Forbes. Prior to the pandemic, when a low-cost carrier entered a new route, average fares on that route would drop by about 20% before eventually settling at “maybe 10% lower” than before, she said. “Competition and low-cost carriers are two major drivers of lower airfares.
What We Don’t Know
If airfares will stay high through the holiday season. Many summer vacations were booked far in advance, “even before the jet fuel price increases happened,” Berg said. “I think the holiday season will tell us a lot because it’s a time of year where travelers are very inflexible” as they’re headed to see family members and can’t easily change dates or destinations. Holiday travel tends to be booked at the last minute, Berg said, but this year she recommends not waiting. “Fares are probably going to be very high compared to what we saw last year if the trend continues.”
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Further Reading
Surging Jet Fuel Costs Mean Higher Airfares Are Coming, Experts Warn (Forbes)