Topline
Socialist Francesca Hong was heavily favored to win the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary Tuesday in betting odds and among politicos, but the few polls taken proved unreliable in a primary with several major last-minute developments that changed the dynamics in the race.
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Big Number
95.5%. Those were Hong’s odds of winning the race as of Monday, according to Kalshi. Her odds significantly narrowed to 58% by Tuesday afternoon.
Tangent
The crowded field further complicated the dynamic—Roys won 7.5% of the vote and former state official Joel Brennan won 4.7%, shares large enough to significantly change the outcome if they weren’t on the ballot.
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Key Background
Hong, a state representative, narrowly lost to Crowley by 0.4 percentage points when the race was called early Wednesday by the Associated Press. The later polls weren’t too far off in predicting the share of votes Hong would win, 39.4%, but underestimated support for Crowley. He was endorsed by retiring Gov. Tony Evers, while Hong had the support of some prominent progressives, including Reps. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., and Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., though other progressive leaders, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., did not endorse in her race.
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